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Orange County Real Estate Market Update – November 2021


Orange County real estate for the month of November continued to be a strong seller’s market based on the underlying data.

The median sales price of $925,000 in November was up 17.1% compared to prior year. Prior month, the median sales price was $910,000.

The average price per square foot sold increased to $604 or 21.3% versus prior year and up from $598 prior month.

Inventory reached an all-time low based on 15 years of data with supply of 0.9 months versus 1.9 months last November and down from 1.0 month in October. A balanced market is typically 3-6 months of supply. Less than 3 months is a seller’s market and over 6 months is typically a buyer’s market.

The inventory shortage was driven by new listings plummeting 22.9% versus prior year and 25.8% versus prior month. Closed sales on the other hand, fell 9.5% versus prior year, a result of normal seasonality returning to the market versus 2020, which had had pent up sales and demand coming out of the pandemic.

Average days on market remained steady month-over-month at 8 days and down from 10 days prior November or 27.3%.

The average number of showings per listing remained strong at 7.9, consistent with prior month but up 51.9% versus prior year of 5.2. This figure is still well below 2020 average of 5.2 and 1.7 in 2019.

Sales to list price of 101.8% was a result of lack of supply and continued strong buyer demand. In 2020, the sales to list price was 100% and 97.5% in 2019.

Outlook – we continue to have an inventory crisis with strong buyer demand still in the market. Sales are expected to be strong in 2022 based on forecasts by economists, but price increases should be in the low single digits as rising interest rates (expectation of 3.3% in early 2022 and could reach 3.7-4.0% by end of 2022) will push many buyers out of certain price points and decrease demand. Until the months of inventory of homes available for sale returns to a more balanced market, seller’s will continue to be in the driver seat.

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